Domestic Strength Holds, U.S. Softness Improves, and Key Overseas Markets Accelerate
This year, Toronto’s visitor economy has navigated a changing landscape—a drop in first quarter visitation influenced by geopolitical and economic factors gave way to a shift in market mix and a strong summer. With continued momentum expected through Q4, the city is poised for year-over-year growth and a record level of visitor spending in 2025. The below market data and forward-looking indicators are designed to provide insights into fourth quarter performance; for a closer look at year-to-date visitation, please see the Q3 2025 Market Performance Report.
Looking at the domestic market, visitation to Toronto remained strong through the spring and extended summer period. Visitation from Ontario as well as the rest of Canada increased 5% and 4% YoY respectively by the end of September. Consumer confidence in Ontario ticked up to 61 in September, while it held near recent gains (57) at the national level. Search behaviour remained mixed in Q3 for the Canadian market overall with activity searches increasing 10% but accommodation searches declining by 10% YoY. Within Ontario, searches declined 7% for activities and 8% for accommodations YoY.
U.S. visitation demand showed gradual improvement in Q3 (-6% YoY) over Q2 (-10% YoY), even as cross-border geopolitical tensions persisted. For the upcoming Fall-Winter season, U.S. air capacity is 8% below 2024, and traveller intent remains uneven: activity searches are relatively flat at +0.5% while accommodation searches declined -27% YoY in Q3. The strong U.S. dollar remains an enabling factor for travel to Canada.
The U.K. market maintained strong momentum ahead of the upcoming winter season: Q3 arrivals grew +16% YoY and +12% YTD, while air capacity is up by 4% YoY for the 2025 Fall-Winter season. German travellers avoided travelling to the U.S. and continue to show strong affinity for travel to Toronto–and Canada more broadly—as Q3 arrivals jumped 14% YoY (+7% YTD), though Fall-Winter air capacity remains slightly lower than 2024 (-6%).
Mexican arrivals continue to recover—up 9% year-to-date (excluding Q1, where YoY data was impacted by visa changes)—narrowing the YTD deficit to -7% YoY. Air capacity tailwinds are notable: +19% YoY for Fall-Winter, with Guadalajara and Mexico City also seeing increases in air capacity. At the same time, YoY search performance in Q3—accommodation -14% and activities -13%—signals a cautious consumer.
Despite ongoing geopolitical and trade related headwinds, China continues to rebound with 2025 third quarter visitor arrivals up 26% YoY reaching +17% YTD, though recovery to 2019 levels remains distant (-59%). Air capacity has surged in 2025 (Fall-Winter +150% YoY) but remains 57% below 2019. China granting approved destination status to Canada has the potential to stimulate group travel demand and support air capacity growth from the market in 2026. Japan’s recovery accelerated during the peak summer season: Q3 arrivals +27% YoY (+16% YTD). Air capacity is flat for the Fall-Winter period; the yen has strengthened modestly but is still near five-year lows.
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